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In what form, and through which areas did notions of risk and probability first arise historically?  

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Question 1: In what form, and through which areas did notions of risk and probability first arise historically? Risk, in modern terms, can be seen as the 'approach to foresee and control the future consequences of human action, the various unintended consequences of radicalised modernisation. It is an (institutionalised) attempt, a cognitive map, to colonise the future' (Beck, 1999:3). There is a modern day tendency to view present day concerns about risk in an ahistorical context. It has come to be widely recognised that risk, as defined in terms of how it is recognised today, was born during the seventeenth century and the emergence of modernity through the Enlightenment period of the Renaissance in which mysticism yielded to science and logic. However, this essay sets out to argue that notions of risk and probability are by no means rooted in the onset of modernity. It is argued that such notions are even...

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