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Is it possible to predict who will offend again? A means of accurately predicting whether an individual will re-offend would have a number of applications. Firstly it would provide an objective way of deciding which offenders should be granted parole. Secondly it would allow judgements to be made on the effectiveness of different prison or probation regimes. The government has recognised the potential value of an accurate predictive tool, and has financed a number of scientific attempts to design one. These Home Office studies are the most comprehensive and sophisticated British attempts to determine just how predictable re-offending is, and are detailed later in this essay. There are two rival methods of predicting future behaviour, although they are not mutually exclusive. Broadly these are the 'clinical' method, and the 'statistical' method. The statistical method is in its essence objective. A statistician scores a subject on a range of measures, and then by...

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