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Forecasting Methods Assignment Shivanand R. Koppalkar University of Phoenix MGT 554: Operations Management Steven Williams August 28, 2006 Introduction Forecasting can be defined as Estimating or predicting future events or conditions. Forecasts may be long-term or short-term. The techniques used may be quantitative (often making sue of computers) or qualitative. Quantitative forecasting models may be classified into (a) causal models in which independent variables are used to forecast dependent variables, and (b) time series models, which produce forecasts by extrapolating the historical values of the variables of interest by, e.g., moving averages. Seasonal Model Seasonality is a pattern that repeats for each period. For example annual seasonal pattern has a cycle that is 12 periods long, if the periods are months, or 4 periods long if the periods are quarters. The seasonal index is required to be found for each month, or other periods, such as quarter, week depending on the data availability...

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